Is the US economic expansion at its late cycle phase and coming to an end soon? Will China manage to maintain stable economic growth amid the US-China trade war? What will happen to Europe after Brexit? The shape of the global economic outlook is something we would like to know at the beginning of the year.
Regarding the US-China trade war, it is much more than trade and isn't just between China and the US. Most of the developed economy leaders have the belief that China is opening up to trade and investment too slowly and protections of its SOEs distort not only the domestic market but also foreign markets when these firms export or invest abroad. There may be a mutually beneficial path out of this conflict, but will leaders on both sides find it? And will Hong Kong get caught in the middle of an escalating conflict?
To prognosticate the global economic development in 2019, the Chamber has invited Dr. Michael Spencer, Managing Director, Chief Economist and Head of Research Asia Pacific at Deutsche Bank, to share his insights. Dr. Spencer has been a senior member of Deutsche Bank's research department in Hong Kong since joining the bank in December 1997 as Senior Economist. Since 2013, he has been Head of Research, Asia Pacific, overseeing the bank's equity, fixed income, credit, foreign exchange and economics research throughout the region. He is also a member of the Management Committee of Deutsche Bank AG, Hong Kong.
Prior to joining Deutsche Bank, Dr. Spencer worked at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) between 1990 and 1997, the last six years of which were in the International Capital Markets Division, which pioneered the IMF's surveillance of capital markets and financial system soundness in all its member countries. He has published numerous articles on different aspects of financial economics in both academic and policy fora.
Dr. Spencer has a PhD and a Bachelor of Arts degree (Honours) from Queen's University, Canada, and a Master of Arts degree from the University of Toronto.