Economic Update
DateTitle
2019/12/05Challenges Ahead for New EU Chief
Ursula von der Leyen, Germany’s former defence minister, officially took office as President of the E.U. Commission on 1 December, succeeding Jean-Claude Juncker.
2019/10/30The Slide into Recession
While the official Q3 GDP data for Hong Kong will not be officially released until tomorrow (31 October), Financial Secretary Paul Chan has already said in his blog that the city’s economy continued to contract in the third quarter. This confirms that Hong Kong has technically entered a recession, which is defined as two consecutive quarterly contractions. In Q2, real GDP contracted by 0.4% on a quarter-on-quarter basis.
2019/09/26A Familiar Playbook to Boost Economic Growth
Recent data seems to indicate that the Chinese economy is facing increased downward pressure. Industrial production expanded 4.4% year-on-year in August, the slowest pace since February 2002. Growth in retail sales and investment have also edged down, reinforcing the belief that Beijing may soon move more boldly to meet the economic growth target of 6%-6.5% set for this year.
2019/08/05Grim economic outlook
Few people would deny that these are extraordinary times for Hong Kong. Rarely have retailers in the city had such a cheerless summer. In June, total retail sales were down 6.7% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline (Figure 1). The value of sales of jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts declined by 17.1%, the steepest slide since August 2016.
2019/07/26Yield Curve Inversion
The difference between 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury yields has narrowed since the start of this month (Figure 1), amid hopes that the Federal Reserve will reduce its target federal fund rate at its next meeting on 30-31 July. For economy watchers, it tells them something about the outlook of the U.S. economy.
2019/06/26New Normal for Tourism
Thanks to the opening of the Hong Kong section of the Express Rail Link (XRL) and the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge in September and October 2018, total visitor arrivals to Hong Kong have continued to grow this year.
2019/05/03We Cannot Ignore Lower Productivity Growth
Facing a gradually ageing population (Figure 1), Hong Kong’s total labour force is expected to reach a plateau during 2019 to 2022, according to a projection by the Census and Statistics Department.
2019/04/03Retail Sales Growth Remains Weak
Hong Kong’s retail sales dropped 10.1% year-on-year in February after a 7% growth in January, according to provisional figures.
2019/03/07Beijing Steps Up Economic Stimulus
Mainland China has lowered its GDP growth target for 2019 to a range of 6-6.5%, compared to “around 6.5%” in 2018, as announced in Premier Li Keqiang’s report delivered at the opening of the annual session of the 13th National People's Congress in Beijing.
2019/02/04Federal Reserve Takes a Dovish Turn
U.S. President Donald Trump may be feeling a sense of relief right now. The government has re-opened after a five-week shutdown – also reducing the opportunities for conflict with the tough House Speaker Nancy Pelosi -- and the Federal Reserve has taken a more dovish turn.
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