In the Chamber’s latest Business Prospects Survey, companies have signalled a rebound in confidence in the Hong Kong economy, despite global economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.
Nearly half of respondents expressed optimism about the city’s economic outlook for the next 12 months, a dramatic rise from just 18.3% a year ago. This shift reflects a broader narrative of resilience and adaptability that defines Hong Kong’s business landscape.
The Chamber forecasts real GDP growth of 2.7% in 2026, with headline inflation at 1.8%, reflecting cautious but steady growth. The worst of the slowdown may be behind us, as evidenced by performance indicators. Over 70% of businesses reported stable or increased turnover in the first 10 months of 2025. Looking ahead, 40.3% of respondents expect their business to grow in 2026, while another 44.1% anticipate stability, a reassuring sign for an economy that thrives on predictability and confidence.
An outward-looking mindset is critical to Hong Kong’s position as a global hub amid shifting trade dynamics. It is encouraging to note that while most companies plan to maintain their capital investment levels in Hong Kong, there is a clear appetite for diversification. The Greater Bay Area continues to attract attention, with nearly 39% of businesses planning to increase investment there. Beyond the Chinese Mainland, Southeast Asia and the Middle East have emerged as strategic destinations, reflecting a pragmatic approach to risk management and opportunity-seeking.
However, optimism alone does not guarantee success. The survey highlights digital transformation as both an opportunity and a challenge. Over 90% of businesses are integrating AI and digital technologies, but adoption remains uneven, particularly among SMEs. While the benefits are clear, current challenges include a shortage of technical talent and high upfront costs, with just about a quarter of respondents expecting noticeable advancement in the near term.
Adding to the momentum are Hong Kong’s ambitious infrastructure projects, which promise to reshape the city’s economic landscape. The development of initiatives such as the Northern Metropolis, San Tin Technopole and Airport City will create new growth engines, strengthen connectivity and attract global investment. These initiatives also reinforce the city’s role as a gateway to the GBA, China and beyond, acting as a super-value-adder for businesses eyeing opportunities for expansion and collaboration.
Although economic headwinds and structural shifts persist, the survey’s findings are clear: Hong Kong’s business community is not standing still. It is adapting, diversifying and investing in the future. If these trends hold, 2026 could be pivotal for the economy and Hong Kong’s role as a leading financial, trade and transportation hub.
Agnes Chan
chairman@chamber.org.hk