Formulating medium- to long-term plans to guide socioeconomic development is a cornerstone of governance for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).  

As Neil Thomas, a researcher at the Asia Society in the United States, observed: “Western policy works on election cycles, but Chinese policymaking operates on planning cycles.” This perspective is not without merit. 

On October 20, 2025, the “Recommendations of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15^th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development” were adopted at the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20^th Central Committee.  

These guidelines outline the country’s main goals for economic and social development for the 15^th Five-Year Plan period, including significant progress in high-quality development, scientific and technological self-reliance, social civility, people’s quality of life and the construction of a “Beautiful China.”  

The recommendations also set a long-term target: by 2035, China aims to develop the economic strength of a medium-developed country and essentially achieve socialist modernization. We should emphasize the importance of China achieving the status of a medium-developed country within the next decade. How can we determine if an economy has reached that level?  

According to current international standards, a per capita GDP between US$25,000 and US$35,000 is a key indicator. In 2025, the per capita GDP of the Chinese Mainland is approximately US$14,000. To surpass US$25,000 in the next decade, assuming the population remains unchanged, the average annual economic growth rate must be at least 5.8%.  

Clearly, maintaining GDP growth above 5% under the old growth model is challenging. Scientific and technological innovation, along with added value across various industries, are vital for driving sustainable economic growth at a higher level. As a result, it is certain that China’s growth model will undergo a significant transformation during the 15^th Five-Year Plan period. 

From this perspective, during the 15^th Five-Year Plan period, new industries with high added value and strong international competitiveness will emerge in the Greater Bay Area. Among these, the I&T sector is the most promising. The existing Guangdong-Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Macau Innovative Technology Corridor will serve as a backbone for China’s development as a technology powerhouse, especially in enhancing self-reliance in the AI industry.  

Meanwhile, the higher education clusters in Hong Kong and Guangzhou will become vital training hubs for top talent. The cultural and creative industries in the GBA also hold immense potential, while green industries such as agriculture, planting, healthcare and leisure will flourish. 

The 15^th Five-Year Plan will reinforce China’s position as a global leader in manufacturing, innovation and consumption. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen serve as business and financial centres, operational bases, connection hubs and value-added centres, like Singapore and Dubai in Asia and London, Switzerland and Luxembourg in Europe.  

As global cities aim to access the Mainland’s extensive service market, Hong Kong should consider: on what basis can it gain an advantage over other cities to become the hub for serving Mainland enterprises? 

Undoubtedly, Hong Kong needs to further strengthen its solid foundation in business, trade, and finance, developed over more than a century. It should also enhance its capabilities during the 15^th Five-Year Plan period to better support economic development in the Mainland, especially by offering value-added services to help Mainland enterprises go global. 

At the same time, Hong Kong also needs to strengthen its position as an international financial centre and a corporate operational hub. This includes an unwavering foundation of the rule of law, international recognition of its spirit of contract and credit, comprehensive protection of property rights, a straightforward and low tax system, stability in the status and exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar, connectivity between China and the world, and an inclusive and diverse social culture. 

Dr Tse Kwok Leung, Senior Research Fellow (Honorary), Lau Chor Tak Institute of Global Economics and Finance, The Chinese University of Hong Kong