Shawn Maher, Global Vice Chair of Public Policy at EY, led an informative roundtable on 3 December to discuss potential policy shifts in the United States under President Donald Trump.
Moderated by Mark Michelson, Chairman of the Americas Committee, the session delved deep into the changes that could ripple across trade, tax, technology, climate and energy. Maher, who brings significant insight from his tenure within the U.S. Government and the Obama White House, highlighted the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s leadership.
A key focus was the President-elect’s cabinet selections. Maher explained that most candidates require Senate confirmation, which involves nearly 1,200 positions in the Executive branch. He noted a striking difference from four years ago – this time, Trump’s picks demonstrate unwavering loyalty to him, diverging from a more traditional stance based on recommendations and qualifications.
As the dialogue shifted to Trump’s protectionist approach, Maher raised the question of whether Trump would act on threats of imposing heavy tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China or wield them as a bargaining tool.
He also pointed out Trump’s unique, transactional style when discussing foreign policy. Notably, he has both celebrated and critiqued U.S. allies, especially regarding NATO defence spending.
As for tax reform, Maher expressed confidence that legislative action is imminent. Given the expiration of many tax cuts from Trump’s first term, the stage is set for significant tax reform, with Republicans holding the majority in Congress. It’s a race against time to extend existing provisions and introduce new cuts in under a year. Furthermore, these tax reforms may carry implications beyond U.S. borders, with global companies bracing for the impact on income earned in the U.S..
Turning to tech policy, Trump is expected to adopt a more protectionist stance regarding U.S. technology exports and foreign acquisitions of American firms. This could significantly reshape the tech landscape.
Regarding climate and energy, the Trump administration signals a stark departure from Biden’s emphasis on climate change and renewable energy. Trump champions traditional energy sources, leaving many to speculate how he will navigate internal party dynamics, particularly facing resistance from members in districts benefitting from clean energy initiatives.
The overarching trend towards global sustainability continues, with Hong Kong and Greater China aligning with countries like Australia, the United Kingdom, and Canada on green energy standards. Interestingly, California could emerge as a de facto leader on the U.S. state level, having enacted laws that require companies to disclose climate-related activities.
On social issues, Maher highlighted a potential pivot away from diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) initiatives that gained traction under Biden’s administration. Trump’s administration is poised to question the fairness of these policies, raising eyebrows among advocates for equity.
Immigration remains a hot-button issue for the President-elect, whose campaign propagated the idea that immigrants pose a threat to the U.S. However, his plan for reform, including mass deportations, could face legal hurdles and implementation challenges.
Lastly, the financial services sector looks to be on track for a considerable shift as the Trump administration is likely to relax regulations tightened under Biden. Over the past six years, extensive efforts to strengthen banking regulations could be rolled back, reshaping the financial landscape.