As we anticipate the coming year, the Chamber’s 2024 Business Prospects Survey reveals a sense of measured optimism within the Hong Kong business community, with many firms finding reasons for hope despite persistent external challenges.
Respondents identified several key hurdles, including geopolitical tensions, the global economic slowdown and supply chain disruptions. Concerns about slow interest rate cuts and China’s sluggish economic recovery also surfaced. Adding to the uncertainty is the potential for heightened Sino-U.S. tensions, particularly if President Trump were to impose higher trade tariffs on China. Yet, despite these challenges, there is a silver lining.
Hong Kong’s ambitious infrastructure projects – such as the three-runway system and the Kai Tak Sports Park – promise to bolster our long-term growth and competitiveness. These initiatives signal a clear commitment to investing in our city’s potential and setting the stage for a brighter economic future.
This year, businesses expressed less concern about talent shortages compared to the previous two years, thanks to the Government’s supportive talent schemes. These policies have made a tangible difference, enabling companies to focus on innovation and expansion.
Looking ahead, the Chamber predicts GDP growth of 2.3% for 2025, which slightly exceeds the expectations of the International Monetary Fund. This outlook is further supported by a projected 2% growth in retail sales, buoyed by a line-up of exciting citywide mega-events that will attract more tourists and encourage industry adaptations to evolving consumption patterns.
The resumption of multiple-entry arrangements for Shenzhen residents will also inject much-needed vitality into our economy, fuelling the retail market’s recovery and helping local businesses hit by shifting consumption trends.
Beyond local developments, there is a rising tide of positive sentiment surrounding investments in the Greater Bay Area (GBA). An impressive 34% of firms operating in the region plan to increase their investments in 2025, signalling robust confidence in its potential.
This enthusiasm extends beyond the Mainland, as many businesses are eyeing expansion into ASEAN markets and the Middle East. Notably, over half of the respondents are actively diversifying their businesses into new markets. Moreover, Hong Kong’s merchandise exports are projected to grow by 8.9% in 2024, primarily attributed to the lower base recorded in 2023.
Aided by strategic investments and strong government policies with a clear focus on growth, I believe the business community in Hong Kong is well-positioned to emerge stronger than ever.
By embracing innovation and adapting to the changing market conditions, we can capitalize on new opportunities and drive sustainable development in the years ahead.
Agnes Chan
chairman@chamber.org.hk