Economic Update
DateTitle
2016/01/19China’s 2015 Growth Matched Expectations; What Should We Expect Next?
China announced the full-year results of a number of key economic indicators for 2015 (see Table 1). While some of these indicators have fallen short of targets laid out in March 2015, the combination of lower-than-expected inflation, robust growth of the tertiary sector, and improved trade surplus has helped stabilize the economy and kept its headline growth rate intact. Although we do not expect any V-shape growth rebound in 2016, a more proactive approach of fiscal spending and effects of expansionary monetary measures should help stabilize the Chinese economy.
2016/01/08Enduring the Cold Winter
While strolling around Central recently, I snapped up a few shirts for Chinese New Year. I may have got a bargain, but the exceptionally sweet deal makes me worry about the retail sector’s coming prospects.

2015/12/17End of an Era
The U.S. Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate from the 0-0.25% range to 0.25-0.5% on 16 December. On the back of steadily recovering economic momentum and a stronger labour market, the move marks the end of a seven-year period with close-to-zero interest rate.
2015/12/01RMB Milestone
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed its review of the basket of currencies for the Special Drawing Right (SDR) and included the Chinese renminbi (RMB) for the first time. Effective 1 October 2016, as the fifth currency – after the US Dollar, euro, British pound, and Japanese yen – the RMB will be part of the SDR basket.
2015/11/05What Will the 13th FYP Hold in Store?
Shortly after the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committeeconcluded on 29October, the Central Government released "The CPC Central Committee's Proposal on Formulating the Thirteenth Five-year Plan (13th FYP, 2016-2020) on National Economic and Social Development"(the Proposal) on 3 November. The Proposalcovers the details and the chain of thought of the Central Government in various areas, from protecting agricultural land and accelerating financial reform to the opening up of the Chinese economy.
2015/10/20Matching Expectations
After recording 7%YoY growth in the first half of 2015, China’s third quarter GDP growth dipped slightly to 6.9%YoY, the slowest quarterly growth since the first quarter of 2009, when the economy grew 6.2%.
2015/10/19It is autumn, and it is time for a hike
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet on 27 and 28 October to discuss interest rates, among other issues. At the time of writing, the federal fund futures trading price suggested a 6% chance for the Federal Reserve to raise the interest rate on federal funds by 25bps. That being said, we believe there are reasons to support the first rate hike since the global financial crisis.
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