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21 September 2001

The Honorable Donald Tsang
Chief Secretary for Administration
Hong Kong Special Administrative Region
12/F, West Wing, Central Government Offices
Lower Albert Road
Central, Hong Kong

Dear Donald,

First of all, let there be no mistake that the Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce shares the principle espoused by the Observatory and by the Hong Kong Government that public safety should be the paramount consideration when it comes to weather warnings. It is precisely because of this reason that we at the Chamber believe that the community needs to find a more reliable and effective typhoon signaling system.

A No. 8 signal which consistently turns out to be a false alarm will in time be taken less seriously — as it has been already in recent cases. If the perception persists, it will encourage a reckless disregard of the warning, which will be even more dangerous. As for economic losses, while it is difficult to quantify, it is not true that "catch-up" can make up for the losses. Lost opportunities and deals can be innumerable for an international city. Therefore, we believe that the current system of grading typhoons — rooted in the history of maritime warnings — needs to be reviewed.

One proposal is that the typhoon signaling system could emulate the rainstorm warning system. That is, some form of transitional grading between No. 3 and No. 8 would be useful in giving flexibility for the necessary precaution to be undertaken, thus minimizing the impact of the disruption. For the new No. 8, a higher wind speed threshold than 63km/h should be considered. The new No. 5 signal could be used in the situation where the wind is at the lower end of the "gale" speed and where the rainfall is not heavy. It is also applicable when there is a high probability of the typhoon not hitting direct, even though it may cause some gale force wind.

The advantage of the additional No. 5 signal is that the disruption to business and ordinary life would be minimized when the wind diminishes. On the other hand, if the typhoon is to get closer or if the wind gets stronger, No. 8 can be hoisted but there will be a longer period of transition to minimize disruptions. For schools, closure can be mandated at No. 5 as a matter of course.

This is just one suggestion, but the main point of this letter is that while we believe in "safety first" and accept economic losses due to a serious weather condition, we should not accept economic losses due to too-conservative or out-dated grading of typhoons or inaccurate interpretation of scientific data. Therefore, we hope you will commission a review into the current system of typhoon warnings.

Thank you.

Regards,

Christopher Cheng
Chairman