Despite the demise of the dot-coms, the Internet revolution is far from over. In fact, it is entering a new era as wireless data services become a reality.

In 1999, about 165 million wireless phones were sold worldwide. By 2004, the number of mobile devices is expected to exceed 1 billion.

U.S. based research company Jupiter Communications forecasts that the number of browser-enabled mobile phone users worldwide will skyrocket from 1.1 million in 1999 to 79.4 million in 2003. IDC forecasts that there will be 1 billion Internet users by the end of 2002, and approximately 60 per cent of users are expected to be mobile Internet subscribers.

In Asia, the number of wireless Internet users is expected to double in the next three years to about 350 million, representing the fastest growth rate in the world. In short, the world is about to go mobile.

Mobile commerce
The introduction of GPRS (General Packet Radio Services) ?which changes wireless data transfer from circuit switch to packet mode ?means that instant connectivity to the Internet from a mobile phone is now a reality, and with it mobile commerce (m-commerce).

M-commerce is the collision of the two fastest growing markets in the world: the wireless Internet and e-commerce. It is considered a subset of e-commerce which specifically refers to e-commerce that is carried out on a mobile terminal. By 2003, it is expected that 25 per cent of mobile users worldwide will be using m-commerce and that it will take a significant share of the overall e-commerce pie.

Stages of adoption
To speed up acceptance of m-commerce, many companies are now starting to develop WAP content offerings, betting that consumers with comfortable accessing Internet-based information through mobile devices will make online purchases.

Industry analysts predict m-commerce will come in three stages. The first popular application for m-commerce will most likely be simple, straight-forward transactions, such as using your mobile phone to pay for a can of Coke from a vending machine. This is not as sci-fi as it sounds, because it is already happening at a vending machine at the football field next to Taikoo Place, Quarry Bay.

The second stage of m-commerce will draw on more advanced technology, such as satellite Global Positioning System (GPS), Personalisation Applications and "Push" Promotion Messaging. For example, you might receive promotional information or an electronic dining coupon from one of your favourite restaurants in Causeway Bay when you are in that area.

The third stage may involve complex payment applications. These will be able to pay bills, provide universal shopping carts, or virtual wallets. Instead of carrying your wallet, you will be able to store all your credit, debit and membership cards electronically on your mobile phone and be able to purchase any product from anywhere in the world. With such payment applications, m-commerce will eventually overtake e-commerce in popularity.

It is predicted that it will take at least two more years before high volume m-commerce becomes a commercial reality. The problem right now is the lack of infrastructure and applications. Most of the m-commerce events we hear about are nothing more than public-relations stunts.

How it will affect business
M-commerce will revolutionise the way the business world works, and will create many new business opportunities for companies who embrace the new technology. For example, you can mobilise your sales force. Imagine all your sales people can be on the road and be able to access your complete company database at any time.

It will enable you to bring your office anywhere, anytime whenever you want and then utilise it at the very moment a business opportunity strikes.

For now, what businesses can do "today" is to conduct a serious reality-check, do research and start thinking "mobile." Because in no time you can be sure your competitors will be doing so.

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Michael Preiss is vice chairman of the Chamber's e-committee. Sassuan Lee is an e-commerce and mobile commerce professional.