With this year's Policy Address from the Chief Executive now behind us (see report on page 12), it is time for the Chamber to also look to the immediate future. Given the local and international uncertainties, especially concerns about global economic trends, it is hardly surprising that the Chief Executive took a confident, if cautious, approach in his address this year.

There are certainly reasons for caution. Locally, although the SAR has seen a good recovery from recession, there are clearly some business sectors and some members of the community that have not seen the benefits they might have expected. These factors, along with the setback to the local share market, have naturally led to concerns about the future direction of the economy.

The second half of the year so far has produced sustained growth, but high crude oil prices have emerged as a threat to the recovery. Globally, volatile equity and currency markets, and concerns about a slow down in the economy of the world's biggest market, the United States, are all very important issues as far as sustaining Hong Kong's recovery is concerned.

It is in this context that I would like to address two issues in this chairman's message that could prove to be important to you as a Chamber member and local business leader charged with making vital decisions for your company's and your employees' future. First up, is the Chamber's Business Summit, to be held this year on Dec. 13. Second, is the Chamber's annual pay review analysis for the year ahead.

This year's Seventh Annual Business Summit looks at the SAR as "The Hub of Asia." The summit promises to be another outstanding event, featuring the results of the Business Prospects Survey (which you should have received last month) and the Chamber's economic forecast for the year ahead. Once again, this year the summit will be opened by the SAR Chief Executive.

The Plenary Session will feature three speakers from key "hub" sectors of the local economy: Esquel Group Chairman Marjorie Yang speaking on logistics, President and Managing Director of Goldman Sachs (Asia) Richard Gnodde speaking on finance, and Group Managing Director of Pacific Century CyberWorks Alexander Arena speaking on the digital hub. Chamber Director Dr Eden Woon will act as moderator.

I will chair the popular General Committee Panel Discussion, which this year features: Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Chairman David Eldon, John Swire & Sons (HK) Ltd. Chairman James Hughes-Hallett, Microsoft Hong Kong Ltd. General Manager Graham Brant, and On Kung Hong Ltd. Executive Director Andrew Yuen.

After the Chamber's economic forecast, the half-day Business Summit will conclude with a special luncheon address by Joseph Yam, chief executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. I strongly recommend that all Chamber members book early for this important summit.

On our wage analysis for the coming 2001 year, which you should have already received, I would simply like to recommend that members take the Chamber's views into account when undertaking their wage review in the year ahead. While the recovery in the local economy has been robust, it has been uneven and, unusually, has been accompanied by continuing consumer price deflation. This has made the wage analysis difficult.

Further compounding the difficulties was the need to take into account the introduction of the Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF), which is a cost on business, but an ultimate benefit to employees. Yet another consideration was the fact that the community had borne a large degree of wage restraint in two years of recession and that some companies were faced with a high labour demand and turnover, especially in the new economy.

All these factors had to be taken into account and, in the circumstances, the recommended increase of up to 2 per cent (or 7 per cent including MPF for many) may be regarded as fairly positive under the circumstances.