Now that the dust from the Internet stampede has settled and consolidation has produced a stable of fine companies and products, the long-talked-about Internet prophecy is starting to be realised.

Dr Jeffrey Rayport, senior partner of Monitor Group, told members at the Chamber's June 4 roundtable luncheon that just as the advent of the railroad, telephone and the car created previously unimaginable opportunities, so, too, has the Internet. And, like the Internet, these advances led to great sums being invested in new technologies by companies that sprung up overnight to capitalise on their potential.

Fierce competition and consolidation resulted in a few dominant players driving the new industries forward and "that is where we believe we are today with the Internet," he said.

"The first big indicator of how different this next chapter of Internet development will be is that if we have always associated Internet adoption with Web sites, with dot-coms and with personal computers, Asia is proving to the world that the dominant form of Internet access will be wireless. Wireless access in most Asian countries has already become more prevalent than PC-based access," Dr Rayport said.

Wireless Internet access will also change the way we view and use the Internet. Sitting in front of a monitor to get online will become a thing of the past as wireless access gives rise to a proliferation of devices and sensory displays that will result in a whole new networked experience.

Mr Rayport estimates that 450 million people around the world access the Internet via their PCs. By comparison, one-third of the world's population of 6 billion people use a mobile phone. He reasons that the remaining two-thirds of people who have yet to buy a mobile phone will most likely jump on the Internet using hand-held devices.

But the biggest trend he predicts over the next five to 10 years will not be about the Internet, but rather devices and services enabled by the Internet.

"We are already seeing is a proliferation of single-focused applications, such as pagers, navigation systems for cars and email devices like the Blackberry are all devices that are starting to become important in our lives," he said.

Also, companies will increasingly turn to digital technologies to manage relations between customers, consumers and markets.

Speech 

Hong Kong's airfreight community must join hands to eradicate serious inefficiencies impeding the territory's air-cargo logistics operations if it is to maintain its status as Asia's leading air-cargo hub, Almon Yu, CEO, Sun Hung Kai Super Logistics Limited, warned at the Chamber's June 11 roundtable luncheon.

Fragmentation of cargo operations and services is costing businesses time and money, he said. What is needed is the same criteria for managing cargo operations that is applied to the passenger terminal, which is a single terminal.

"Why do we have multiple cargo terminals?" he asked. "We know that they are inefficient, result in a long connection time and are a duplication of investment. We wouldn't do that for passengers, so why do we do it for cargo?"

Theoretically, more than one facility promotes competition and innovation, which results in cheaper and better services for users. "But I haven't seen prices dropping. Have you?" he said.

Another problem is that the airfreight terminals are not connected, so each of the 80 tenants in the terminals must operate their own trucks, which they must load then drive to the other terminal about 100 meters away and then unload.

"This obviously causes lots of incon-veniences, resources and adds to costs," he said.

Providing a consolidated trucking service to move cargo from one terminal to another may seem to be a solution, but Mr Yu suggests linking the airfreight terminals with flyovers along which dollies would shuttle pallets back and forth.

But again, while saving money and increasing efficiency, this is still a compromise to what he says is an obvious solution of building one single airfreight terminal, or a "magic box:" when the airfreight comes it goes through the magic box and then to the customer; or from the customer through the magic box onto the plane.

"We don't need cargo terminals or freight forwarding warehouses, because the more parties that are involved, the more handling is involved and the more expensive it is. What we need is an integrated logistics centre where everything is in place: customs, storage, packing, value-added services, palletization, x-ray. It all should be done in one "magic box"," he said.

Speech 

WTO member countries my slam the door on Chinese goods if they feel they threaten the livelihood of their domestic industries, Nicholas Lardy, one of the world's leading economists on China, told members at the Chamber's China Business Series luncheon on May 21.

When China entered the World Trade Organisation, it agreed to three "WTO-plus" provisions that no other WTO member had ever agreed to, Mr Lardy, who is a senior fellow for Foreign Policy Studies at Brooking Institute said.

"It is a highly discriminatory kind of provision and in my view flies in the face of the most basic principle of the WTO, which is equal treatment for everybody," he said.

The three provisions are a product-specific transitional safeguard mechanism, a textile safeguard mechanism and the use of the non-market economy methodology in anti-dumping cases for the next 15 years.

The product-specific mechanism, for example, will allow other members of the WTO to limit the inflows of goods from China much more easily than they can control the goods or flow of goods for other countries. And Mr Lardy points out that China could face protectionism measures not just from developed countries, but also those of developing nations that could be legally left in place for as long as 12 years after China's WTO commitments start.

"The injury standard is minimal, in fact there is no need to show injury at all, you just have to show imports from China are increasing," Mr Lardy said.

The safeguards can be applied to China even if imports of the same item from other countries are increasing, he added.

Over 600 Shandong entrepreneurs attended "Shandong-Hongkong Week" on May 30 to learn more about Hong Kong's experiences in developing its services sector, in particular logistics and professional business services.

Co-organised by HKGCC and its policy think tank, Hong Kong Coalition of Service Industries, in cooperation with the HKSAR Beijing Office, the services conference aimed to promote Hong Kong's business-related services in Shandong.

In his keynote address, George Leung, HSBC's chief economist for Greater China, gave a general overview of Hong Kong's service industries, and was followed by Denis Lee, of the SME Resource Center, who spoke on corporate consulting services.

Other speakers included Henry Lee, of the Hong Kong Container Terminal Operators Association, speaking on logistics and transportation, Frank Wong of the MTR Corporation Ltd, and Albert Lai of China water, speaking on infrastructure development, and K S Tong of the Adsale Exhibition Services, speaking on sales and marketing.

Shandong is China's third most populous province after Sichuan and Henan, and the third strongest industrial production base after Guangdong and Jiangsu. In 2000, the province's GDP reached RMB854.2 billion, contributing 9.7 per cent of the nation's total, while its industrial output reached RMB831.2 billion.

With a strong per capital income of RMB9,500 per annum, the service sectors in Shandong present great potential for Hong Kong service providers. The GDP contributed by the services sectors in Shandong amounted to RMB302.9 billion in 2000.