COVER STORY
January 2002 Issue

Economic recovery around
the corner
There are already signs that the economic slump has hit
bottom, so Hong Kong businesses should not be too pessimistic about their prospects and
start planning for the future, says Chamber chairman
The unfolding of world events in 2001 has created much uncertainty among
economists and the business community about the immediate prospects for the Hong Kong SAR,
HKGCC Chairman Christopher Cheng told the audience at the Chamber's 8th Annual Hong Kong
Business Summit, held at HKCEC on December 13, 2001.
"In my own view, however, we are in grave danger of erring too much
on the negative side of things, especially as far as business prospects are
concerned," he said.
It is prudent for companies to be cautious, given the slowdown of the
global economy, but as far as the Hong Kong SAR is concerned, there are still grounds for
optimism.
In addition to weathering international political and economic events
quite well, signs are emerging that the global economic and trade downturn may have
already reached bottom.
"We may see a couple of more quarters of negative economic growth,
both in the U.S. and here," Mr
Cheng said. "But beyond that there is the prospect of recovery."
There is already anecdotal evidence last month of an improvement in the
retail sector after several tough months.
Deflation, a relatively weak property market, higher unemployment and
relatively high costs of doing business continue to be thorns in Hong Kong's side, but
these should disappear once recovery is in sight.
Mainland China's entry to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) should speed
up that road to recovery.
"All of us at the Chamber are enormously optimistic about what
China's entry to the WTO will mean for the Mainland itself, world trade and for the Hong
Kong SAR," he said. "We
realise, of course, that there will also be challenges, but overall -- like you -- we are
confident about the benefits of WTO entry for the SAR."
Mr Cheng said he was very pleased to hear that the Central Government is
considering the free trade agreement positively, and now that this proposal is becoming a
discussion between the SAR Government and the Central Government, the Chamber is studying
what should be in such a free trade agreement.
"We will be soliciting input from our members and will present our
analysis to the SAR Government before Chinese New Year. The Chamber really feels that this
kind of free trade agreement, once in place, will bring tremendous advantages for Hong
Kong business in doing even more business on the Mainland," he said.
Also in the direction of closer economic integration with China, the
Chamber recently took the initiative -- along with other business organisations -- in
suggesting to government, among other things, a further opening of the border with
Mainland. If Hong Kong's business relationship with the Mainland is to prosper, then
easier access to the southern Mainland is vital, he said.
"In closing, therefore, I would urge you not be overcome by the
present slow down in the local economy and immediate business prospects. There will be an
end to the present downturn and it is likely to come sooner rather than later," Mr Cheng stressed.
"We should look forward, but let us use the time now to be prepared
for it -- and to take advantage of the tremendous opportunities that will flow our way
from China's historic entry to the WTO -- provided we work hard to take advantage of
them."
Listen to Mr Cheng's speech in streaming audio. Listen >> 
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