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Economic recovery around the corner

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SAR to suffer short, sharp recession, but will recover in mid-2002

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Dutch celebrate China trade excellence

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Study Mission returns from Guangxi and Yunnan

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COVER STORY                                                      January  2002 Issue


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Economic recovery around the corner

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There are already signs that the economic slump has hit bottom, so Hong Kong businesses should not be too pessimistic about their prospects and start planning for the future, says Chamber chairman

The unfolding of world events in 2001 has created much uncertainty among economists and the business community about the immediate prospects for the Hong Kong SAR, HKGCC Chairman Christopher Cheng told the audience at the Chamber's 8th Annual Hong Kong Business Summit, held at HKCEC on December 13, 2001.

"In my own view, however, we are in grave danger of erring too much on the negative side of things, especially as far as business prospects are concerned," he said.

It is prudent for companies to be cautious, given the slowdown of the global economy, but as far as the Hong Kong SAR is concerned, there are still grounds for optimism.

In addition to weathering international political and economic events quite well, signs are emerging that the global economic and trade downturn may have already reached bottom.

"We may see a couple of more quarters of negative economic growth, both in the U.S. and here," Mr Cheng said. "But beyond that there is the prospect of recovery."

There is already anecdotal evidence last month of an improvement in the retail sector after several tough months.

Deflation, a relatively weak property market, higher unemployment and relatively high costs of doing business continue to be thorns in Hong Kong's side, but these should disappear once recovery is in sight.

Mainland China's entry to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) should speed up that road to recovery.

"All of us at the Chamber are enormously optimistic about what China's entry to the WTO will mean for the Mainland itself, world trade and for the Hong Kong SAR," he said. "We realise, of course, that there will also be challenges, but overall -- like you -- we are confident about the benefits of WTO entry for the SAR."

Mr Cheng said he was very pleased to hear that the Central Government is considering the free trade agreement positively, and now that this proposal is becoming a discussion between the SAR Government and the Central Government, the Chamber is studying what should be in such a free trade agreement.

"We will be soliciting input from our members and will present our analysis to the SAR Government before Chinese New Year. The Chamber really feels that this kind of free trade agreement, once in place, will bring tremendous advantages for Hong Kong business in doing even more business on the Mainland," he said.

Also in the direction of closer economic integration with China, the Chamber recently took the initiative -- along with other business organisations -- in suggesting to government, among other things, a further opening of the border with Mainland. If Hong Kong's business relationship with the Mainland is to prosper, then easier access to the southern Mainland is vital, he said.

"In closing, therefore, I would urge you not be overcome by the present slow down in the local economy and immediate business prospects. There will be an end to the present downturn and it is likely to come sooner rather than later," Mr Cheng stressed.

"We should look forward, but let us use the time now to be prepared for it -- and to take advantage of the tremendous opportunities that will flow our way from China's historic entry to the WTO -- provided we work hard to take advantage of them."

Listen to Mr Cheng's speech in streaming audio. Listen >>

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