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Economic recovery around the corner

Government, business toiling to ensure HKSAR's future

Competition to speed up reform of Mainland's SOEs

SAR is a global player, not merely a China middleman


WTO heaven, or WTO hell?

SAR to suffer short, sharp recession, but will recover in mid-2002

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WTO challenges to boost Hong Kong SAR's edge

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COVER STORY                                                      January  2002 Issue


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WTO heaven, or WTO hell?

Companies must carefully plot their course through potential minefields in China if they want to be around to reap the "big-win" two to three years down the road

Foreign businesses traversing the road to the "big-win" in China will first have to negotiate a number of minefields. Those that strategize and plot their course carefully, instead of just looking at arriving there, will be the ones that succeed, Dr Denis Simon, president, Monitor Group (China), told the business summit audience.

Western businesses are excited about what WTO compliance will mean for their companies, but they also need to prepare themselves for a bumpy journey.

"The key challenge will be how to survive over the next two to three years, to position themselves for that 'big-win' situation that is going to be coming down the road," he said.

Anticipation of increased access is making some companies light headed, and has prompted a slew of very smart companies to do some very silly things in China, he said.

Many foreign firms think they will be able to bulldoze themselves a path through the competition, but Dr Simon points out that easier access to the Mainland market will in fact create more competition for everyone. A major problem is that no one is clear exactly where that competition is going to come from or how it will change the landscape.

"But one thing is sure: there will be more competition instead of less," he said.

Changes outside of China may be just as great as those inside the country, as Mainland companies start expanding globally, he suggested.

China is pushing WTO not to give a free lunch to foreign companies, but to strengthen the competitiveness and fibre of Mainland firms. Already, some industries, especially construction firms in Asia, are starting to worry about competing against their Mainland counterparts, he said.

Companies are also starting to restructure to get local talent at both middle and senior levels. Some are also establishing tri-hubs -- Japan, China and Asian headquarters -- so that China becomes much more central to their operations.

Consequently, both foreign and Mainland companies are now asking themselves are they going to end up in WTO heaven? Or in WTO hell?

One of the things companies are going to have to be clear about is that they plan to get the most out of what they have in China. This includes tapping into China's knowledge reservoirs.

Most companies think of China as a cheap manufacturing base. But the real jewel of China is its scientists, its technical people and entrepreneurs that will trickle down into foreign companies to help them succeed globally.

Companies must also build solid customer relations and develop services for Mainland consumers, because the effort to capture their attention and loyalty is going to be one of the hardest things to win, Dr Simon said.

"So if you get your house in order, then multinational companies are going to be able to capture the 'big-win.' Now we are in a situation where we are in a lot of fog, and we are wandering through this fog to the big win," he said.

Hong Kong has an unprecedented opportunity to help both foreign and Mainland companies, because China will not be able to train service providers fast enough to meet demand.

This is not limited to helping Mainland companies expand their domestic markets. As Chinese companies go global, they are going to need support. They are going to need assistance to help them get into global markets.

"Hong Kong has a real advantage here," Dr Simon said.


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