LEGCO REPORT
December 2002 Issue

Stabilising property market will help revive
economy
The Hon James Tien, the Chamber's Legco Rep,
shares his views on how the government's new measures to stabilise property prices will
strengthen the property market, and with it the local economy
After a comprehensive review of its housing policy, the HKSAR Government
announced on November 13 nine measures to restore stability in the property market. These
measures, which include halting the Home Ownership Scheme and the sale of public housing,
along with a temporary freeze to land sales and railway property developments, have been
welcomed by the general public. Although the impact of the measures will not be
immediately felt, I believe that over the long run they will help stabilise property
prices.
Because the real estate sector is a major pillar of our economy, any
instability in it leads to far-reaching consequences. As the administration revealed upon
announcing its new measures, property prices have tumbled 62 per cent since their peak in
1997, which has also resulted in 12 per cent deflation over the past four years. This
prolonged, serious deflation has already diminished consumer and investor confidence in
the economic prospects of Hong Kong, which has inhibited economic recovery as a whole. As
such, the government could hardly let the situation go on.
Minimise market intervention
Through these measures, the government also delivered an important message
that it intends to withdraw from the property market. As the Secretary for Housing,
Planning and Lands Michael Suen said, the SAR Government's future role should principally
focus on land supply and provision of rental housing.
I totally support this decision. In my opinion, the government should not
sell HOS or subsidised flats built with taxpayers' money at prices lower than those of
private housing to pursue its home ownership rate target of 70 per cent. It should,
instead, ensure provision of abundant subsidised rental housing for citizens in need.
Moreover, with private housing prices close to those of HOS flats and low mortgage
interest rates, HOS applicants can already afford to buy private homes. Therefore, the
government no longer needs to sell flats.
I disagree with criticisms that these measures are merely designed to
benefit property developers. Stabilising property prices will help them, of course, but
more importantly, it is instrumental in helping Hong Kong's economy recover. When you
consider that developers hold only 70,000 of all flats in Hong Kong, compared with the
confidence of investors and of over a million flat owners' families which amount to
millions of people, the need to stabilise the property market is obvious.
Raise the mortgage ceiling
However, I feel more still needs to be done to restore stability across
the whole industry. In my opinion, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority should allow banks to
raise the loan ceiling above 70 per cent of flat prices so that banks can be more flexible
in granting mortgages.
According to official statistics, alongside a 62 per cent plunge in home
prices, interest rates for home mortgages have been slashed from 10.5 per cent (P+1) in
December 1997 to the current 2.5 per cent (P-2.5), on average. This means that Hong Kong
residents' ability to repay loans has increased by about 73 per cent.
I believe the above nine measures will curb the fall in property prices,
and because housing costs and mortgages are more affordable for local citizens, banks'
risks are also reduced. The administration should therefore ask the Monetary Authority to
raise the existing loan ceiling to add momentum to Hong Kong's economic recovery.
Although the government said that second mortgages granted by some
developers and the Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation's Mortgage Insurance Programme amount to
more than 70 per cent of flat prices, the former is only applicable to new homes, and the
secondary market should apply to the latter. But as the Insurance Programme has many
conditions attached, its usage rate remains constantly low. The problem may be solved if
the programme can be greatly improved and widely adopted in the secondary market.
Stimulate property transactions
I believe such a move will fuel transactions in the second-hand property
market and help turn around the economy. I am planning to put forward this proposal to
Legco as a motion in mid December for the government's re-consideration.
Among the above measures, freezing land sales will help stimulate property
transactions -- albeit to the detriment of the government's coffers. After analysing the
pros and cons, however, I believe sacrifices made now in return for a better, longer-term
recovery is the right move to make. With an improved economy, the government will be able
to increase its income. In the meantime, it should first work hard to trim its expenditure
to redress the budget deficit.
If you have any comments or proposals on my views, please send them to
me directly at, Legislative Council Building, 8 Jackson Road, Central, Hong Kong. Or email
me at tpc@jamestien.com. Tel.
2500 1013, Fax 2368 5292. |