CHAMBER PROGRAMMES
December 2001 Issue

VCs holding onto money
Rash of losses force investors to be more realistic about expected
rates of return and market potential
Venture
capitalists are taking a very cautious approach to investing their money following heavy
losses with the burst of the dot-com bubble.
This has created a pool of capital US$70 billion deep, but the amount of
money invested remains much less than the amount available, Marc Staal, chairman, Hong
Kong Venture Capital Association, told the audience at the Venture Capital Partnership
Conference on November 1.
The technology sector has been battered by investors'
lack of interest and there is a sense of doom and gloom
in the sector. Much of the dot-com hype revolved around the so-called portal Web sites
which were banking on attracting advertising revenue. At the peak of the hype, projected
advertising revenue for the portals was valued at US$300-400 million, but the market
capitalisation of all these portals was at several billion US-dollars, he said.
"Hopefully, investors won't make the same mistake twice," he said.
For money being sowed in Asia, Hong Kong and Mainland China account for
the largest total of that pool, while Japan takes about half of the total amount, he said.
Macro-wise, looking at Asia, the events of September 11 will continue to
impact the region for some time. The fact that Japan has been struggling to pull itself up
out of the doldrums for the past 12 years will also drag down Asian economies.
China's rapidly growing domestic economy represents one of the few
brighter spots in the region. However, Mr Staal said that with China attempting to cover
the whole gauntlet of manufacturing sectors, from low- to medium- to high-value areas,
Southeast Asian nations will find it harder to attract investments.
People are also getting a bit weary of hearing the 1.2 billion people
story, and need to look at the market realistically when they plan to sell their goods to
Mainlanders reaching middle-class-hood.
With the market already being saturated, the manufacture of such mundane
products as bicycles and mobile phones far exceeds demand.
Hong Kong is also undergoing lots of soul searching as it tries to fit
into the China-WTO equation. However, Mr Staal said Hong Kong has a lot going for it, both
in its regional role and its Greater China role.
"It doesn't make much sense for Hong Kong to be a second Shanghai or
a second Guangzhou, it has to be unique," he said.
But Hong Kong also has to keep on its toes as other cities are fighting to
claim what they feel is their rightful place as leading players in the future economic
prosperity of the region. |