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TRENDS
May 2004 Issue

| New Take-off
Predicted for FDI |
Four out of five
international location experts from around the world believe that FDI is about to take off
again, following three years of continuous decline in global foreign direct investment,
according to a joint survey conducted by UNCTAD in Geneva and by Corporate Location
Magazine in London. For 2004-2005, some 77 percent of the experts are predicting an
improvement in the overall investment environment, 9 percent say it will worsen and 14
percent say it will remain the same. For 2006-2007, the level of optimism rises to 81
percent, while only 6 percent anticipate that things will get worse and just 13 percent
say they will remain the same. China and India take the top positions as attractive
destinations for FDI, with Thailand in third place. In the manufacturing sector, improved
prospects are expected for motor vehicles and other transport equipment, machinery and
equipment, chemicals and, to a lesser extent, electrical and electronic products,
publishing and media services. In the services sector, banking and insurance, business
services, tourism, transport, computer-related services, retail and wholesale trade will
take the lead in attracting FDI in the years to come, experts believe. Asia-Pacific
garners the most optimism of all regions in terms of its future FDI prospects. For both
the short and medium term, 88 percent of the experts expect further improvement in those
prospects, with the remaining 12 percent anticipating that they will remain the same. Not
a single expert predicted any downturn in the region 's
prospects. More
>>
Fewer
Anti-dumping Complaints Lodged |
The
WTO reported in the second half of 2003, some 14 countries initiated 115 anti-dumping
investigations against exports from a total of 30 different countries or customs
territories. This represents a significant decline from the corresponding period of 2002,
during which 18 WTO members had initiated 161 anti-dumping investigations. India initiated
the most investigations during the second semester, 33, a significant decline from the 56
investigations it had initiated during the second semester of 2002. China remains at the
top of the list of countries subject to anti-dumping investigations, with 30
investigations initiated on its exports during the second semester of 2003, the same
number as during the corresponding period of 2002. More
>>
Taipei the Most
Expensive Industrial Location in Asia |
Taipei is still the most expensive industrial location in Asia, followed
by Sydney, ranking 11th globally, and Hong Kong, 15th on the world list, according to the
Business Space Across the World, produced by Cushman & Wakefield. Rents, which
form the largest proportion of total occupancy costs, rose or were stable in nearly 75 per
cent of the world 's
top 119 industrial locations monitored in 38 countries in the year to December 2003, when
measured in local currency terms. The highest regional growth was achieved in Africa &
the Middle East, where strong performance in South Africa helped to push up rents by 7 per
cent. Globally, the industrial sector performed better than the office sector last year,
with strong demand for large and small units, and modern facilities generally in short
supply. Looking ahead in 2004, markets that are expected to perform particularly well
include Argentina, Mexico, Russia and South Africa. More >>
The
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey indicates that employers in Hong Kong are feeling more
confident with regards to hiring intentions for the second quarter of 2004. The percentage
of employers planning to take on staff is up 16 percent. Iain Herbertson, Manpower Senior
Vice President and Managing Director Asia Pacific, says "The
increasing confidence of Hong Kong employers over hiring intentions is in part the result
of the recent CEPA signing, which has boosted the demand for labour due to an increase of
exports to Mainland China. The employment outlook for services is 30 percent, up 8
percentage points from three months ago. The finance, insurance & real estate
sector (+15%) has also seen a 5 percentage point gain in prospects since three months ago.
Across other sectors, employers in manufacturing (+20%) have doubled their expectation of
positive employment activity since the last quarter, again possibly the result of
increased demand for labour following the CEPA signing.
More
>>

China M&A activity has increased by 55 percent compared to
the same period in 2003, according to data compiled by M&A Asia. The aggregate value
of China deals announced in the first quarter of 2004 was US$8.7 billion, compared to
US$4.7 billion for the Asia-Pacific region as a whole. China continues to be the number
one location for deal activity based on deal numbers, with Japan heading the list based on
aggregate deal values. Overall, these two locations contributed 60 percent of the total
deal value for Asia in the first quarter of 2004 (2003:48 percent). The top three
industries for M&A activity in China were energy, utilities and mining, financial
services and telecommunications.More >>
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