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TRENDS                                                                           May 2004 Issue

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New Take-off Predicted for FDI

trends1.jpg (18906 bytes)Four out of five international location experts from around the world believe that FDI is about to take off again, following three years of continuous decline in global foreign direct investment, according to a joint survey conducted by UNCTAD in Geneva and by Corporate Location Magazine in London. For 2004-2005, some 77 percent of the experts are predicting an improvement in the overall investment environment, 9 percent say it will worsen and 14 percent say it will remain the same. For 2006-2007, the level of optimism rises to 81 percent, while only 6 percent anticipate that things will get worse and just 13 percent say they will remain the same. China and India take the top positions as attractive destinations for FDI, with Thailand in third place. In the manufacturing sector, improved prospects are expected for motor vehicles and other transport equipment, machinery and equipment, chemicals and, to a lesser extent, electrical and electronic products, publishing and media services. In the services sector, banking and insurance, business services, tourism, transport, computer-related services, retail and wholesale trade will take the lead in attracting FDI in the years to come, experts believe. Asia-Pacific garners the most optimism of all regions in terms of its future FDI prospects. For both the short and medium term, 88 percent of the experts expect further improvement in those prospects, with the remaining 12 percent anticipating that they will remain the same. Not a single expert predicted any downturn in the region's prospects. More >>


Fewer Anti-dumping Complaints Lodged

The WTO reported in the second half of 2003, some 14 countries initiated 115 anti-dumping investigations against exports from a total of 30 different countries or customs territories. This represents a significant decline from the corresponding period of 2002, during which 18 WTO members had initiated 161 anti-dumping investigations. India initiated the most investigations during the second semester, 33, a significant decline from the 56 investigations it had initiated during the second semester of 2002. China remains at the top of the list of countries subject to anti-dumping investigations, with 30 investigations initiated on its exports during the second semester of 2003, the same number as during the corresponding period of 2002. More >>

Taipei the Most Expensive Industrial Location in Asia

trends2s.jpg (7175 bytes)Taipei is still the most expensive industrial location in Asia, followed by Sydney, ranking 11th globally, and Hong Kong, 15th on the world list, according to the Business Space Across the World, produced by Cushman & Wakefield. Rents, which form the largest proportion of total occupancy costs, rose or were stable in nearly 75 per cent of the world's top 119 industrial locations monitored in 38 countries in the year to December 2003, when measured in local currency terms. The highest regional growth was achieved in Africa & the Middle East, where strong performance in South Africa helped to push up rents by 7 per cent. Globally, the industrial sector performed better than the office sector last year, with strong demand for large and small units, and modern facilities generally in short supply. Looking ahead in 2004, markets that are expected to perform particularly well include Argentina, Mexico, Russia and South Africa. More >>


Staff Wanted!

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey indicates that employers in Hong Kong are feeling more confident with regards to hiring intentions for the second quarter of 2004. The percentage of employers planning to take on staff is up 16 percent. Iain Herbertson, Manpower Senior Vice President and Managing Director Asia Pacific, says "The increasing confidence of Hong Kong employers over hiring intentions is in part the result of the recent CEPA signing, which has boosted the demand for labour due to an increase of exports to Mainland China. The employment outlook for services is 30 percent, up 8 percentage points from three months ago.  The finance, insurance & real estate sector (+15%) has also seen a 5 percentage point gain in prospects since three months ago. Across other sectors, employers in manufacturing (+20%) have doubled their expectation of positive employment activity since the last quarter, again possibly the result of increased demand for labour following the CEPA signing. More >>




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China M&A up 55 Percent

China M&A activity has increased by 55 percent compared to the same period in 2003, according to data compiled by M&A Asia. The aggregate value of China deals announced in the first quarter of 2004 was US$8.7 billion, compared to
US$4.7 billion for the Asia-Pacific region as a whole. China continues to be the number one location for deal activity based on deal numbers, with Japan heading the list based on aggregate deal values. Overall, these two locations contributed 60 percent of the total deal value for Asia in the first quarter of 2004 (2003:48 percent). The top three industries for M&A activity in China were energy, utilities and mining, financial services and telecommunications.
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