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Hong Kong Workers, Mainland Workers

Hong Kong's labour force has expanded by over 22 percent in the past decade, driven in part by more women entering the job market, writes DAVID O'REAR

In the past decade, Hong Kong's labour force increased by 22.5 percent, from 2.9 million to 3.5 million. During the same period, the number of employees in the SAR rose by less than 16 percent, to 3.2 million. Clearly there is a mismatch between the rise in the number of people wanting work and the number able to find it, and it is one that will continue for some time.

The most remarkable change over the past decade is the increase in the number of women seeking work, from 36.7 percent in 1993 to 43.9 percent last year, a rise of 3.9 percent a year as compared to the 0.8 percent increase for the workforce as a whole. More than three-quarters, 76.2 percent, of the people joining Hong Kong's workforce in the past 10 years were women.

But, that just measures who wants to work, not who actually has a job. Total employment increased between 1993 and 2003 by 15.9 percent, which explains the more than quadrupling of unemployment from 57,700 to over 250,000, or barely 2 percent to more than 8 percent. Even more remarkable, nearly every woman added to the workforce found a job.

Are young people today suited for work? The simple answer is that those who stay in school will find work. Of the 15-19 years of age group, one in four is unem-ployed, Yet, unemployment among those with an advanced degree is just 3.3 percent.

Certainly we have made great strides in education in the last decade. The number of employed people with little or no education fell nearly 57 percent in the past 10 years, from 3.3 percent to just 1.2 percent. Those with just a primary school education also contracted sharply, from 23.6 percent to 13.9 percent, a drop of 31.4 percent. While graduates of secondary schools grew in line with total employment (remaining at 57 percent), those with an advanced education more than doubled, to 18.3 percent of all employees.

Higher education and the structural shifts in our economy show up in changes to the mix of jobs performed in Hong Kong. As manufacturing moved up the Pearl River, the number of people engaged in craft work or machine operations fell by 29.6 percent while those considered managers or professionals rose by 51.4 percent and now comprise just under one-third of all employees, up from 24.8 percent in 1993.

Making it, here or there

We're also better off. The median income rose from $8,000 a month to $9,800, an increase of 22.5 percent during a period in which consumer prices rose just 17.5 percent. To break it down further, half the people with jobs (50.8 percent, actually) earn less than $10,000 a month, down from 71.7 percent in 1993. Those earning $10,000 to $20,000 rose more than 60 percent (to 28.5 percent of the total) while the share with incomes of more than $20,000 a month nearly tripled, to 20.7 percent.

According to the Census and Statistics Department's survey, some 238,200 Hong Kong residents worked in the Mainland in 2002, a number equal to 6.8 percent of the labour force or nearly 10 percent of local employment. The graph shows the rise over time, but since surveys were sporadic until 2001, the increase is not as smooth as it seems.

Of those working in the Mainland, more than three-quarters were in the manufacturing sector. That fits with the structural shifts in Hong Kong's economy, which saw manufacturing as a share of the economy drop from 9 percent of GDP to less than 4 percent. Clearly, our workers were not moving up the Pearl River to do the same jobs they used to do here, so it shouldn't be a surprise that 37 percent of Hong Kong people working elsewhere in China were administrators or managers.

As might be expected, 88 percent worked in Guangdong. Some have suggested that the reason Hong Kong people want to work in the Mainland is because of the explosive growth opportunities, and certainly that must play a factor. However, only 22.2 percent of the people surveyed last year worked in China because of better career prospects or because it was easier to find a job. The great majority (85.1 percent) were simply on assignment for their employers.

David O'Rear is the Chamber's Chief Economist. He can be reached at david@chamber.org.hk