Chamber members and guests, ladies and gentlemen, I hope you have enjoyed the Summit proceedings so far.

For me, it has been an interesting and informative start to the morning.

It is my pleasure now to be on today’s Panel Discussion with members of the Chamber’s General Committee and our Chief Economist.

We like this session to be interactive, so please be ready with your questions once the brief presentations are done with.

Before we get on to our economic forecast for the year ahead, the results of our Business Prospects Survey and the Panelists’ comments on the outlook for their own business sectors, I would like to make just a few remarks.

You will have seen from your programme that an objective of this Panel session is to discuss the prospects for different business sectors once China enters the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

The session will, of course, range more widely than this. Much depends on your questions from the floor. But the post-WTO entry scenario will invariably be our focus.

When we set the topic for this session, we had hoped the Mainland would already be a WTO member.

That has, of course, been slightly delayed while some further details of entry are sorted out.

But at least we know enough about the basics of her imminent accession to be able to meaningfully comment.

As the chairman of an international transport company, I am vitally and directly interested in the potential impact of China’s WTO entry on trade and investment.

Shippers, not unnaturally, like to see more open markets and greater global trade. Together, they are the lifeblood of our business.

Fortunately, the past year has been an excellent one for Hong Kong and China trade, with good growth over all sectors - and to most major markets.

Indeed, the expansion of Hong Kong’s trade in both GOODS and SERVICES in the past year has been one of the key factors in the SAR’s exceptional economic recovery.

For the year as a whole, we are now looking at real economic growth of better than 10 per cent.

This will represent the best performance of the local economy, in real terms, in the last 13 years since 1987 – 13 years ago.

Unfortunately, the recovery has been somewhat uneven.

Some sectors of the economy have clearly done far better than others, and this has left many people wondering just how good the recovery has really been.

Well, let me re-assure you, the SAR’s rebound from recession has provided a solid base for further improvement in the year ahead.

There may be some uncertainties on the international scene – and I am sure our Chief Economist will look at these in more detail shortly – but the economic outlook remains generally positive.

Most important in this has been the SAR’s role in facilitating trade between the Mainland of China and the major markets of the rest of the world.

China’s trade growth in the past year – some 23 per cent growth in exports and a 30 per cent expansion of imports – was truly exceptional.

It was the key factor in driving the SAR’s own re-export trade, into and out of the Mainland,

It resulted in our own exports expanding 18 per cent in the first nine months of the year,

It has enabled good growth in our port throughput, enabling Hong Kong to maintain its position as the world’s No 1 container port,

And it has been one of the key engines behind our economic recovery.

But trade, of course, is a two-way business and without the pick-up in our major markets, especially the US and Europe, we would not have achieved what we have.

Rapid economic growth in the US, in particular, has led to tremendous demand for imports, particularly from Asia and especially the Mainland.

Indications are that the US economy is now slowing and its is likely that demand for imports will ease in the coming year.

This is likely to have a direct impact on trade out of our immediate region.

Early in the New Year, however, a new and important factor will enter the trade equation – the Mainland’s long-awaited accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

Just what the immediate impact China’s entry will be will depend partly on conditions at the time, the outlook for the global economy, the prospects for world trade, and the like.

But as we made clear in our Chamber report, "China’s Entry to the WTO and its Impact on Hong Kong" earlier this year, China’s WTO entry will open new opportunities for Hong Kong SAR trade and for local businesses.

There will, of course, be challenges and increased competition as a result of a more open, more transparent China market post-WTO entry.

At the Chamber, however, we remain confident that WTO entry will ultimately be of enormous benefit to China itself and the Hong Kong SAR as a major trade and financial centre.

With that comment, I will end my remarks. I hope I have touched on some issues that you may want to pursue with our panelists this morning.

I thank you for your attention.