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Hong Kong Business Summit '99
"Hong Kong, China: Into the Next Millennium"

December 2, 1999

Speech by Ian Perkin, Chief Economist, HKGCC

YEAR IN REVIEW (1999)
Donald Duck - Fallible Forecaster

• For 1999, we had the growth trend right...
  
  >> Negative GDP growth in the first six months, but
  >> Positive growth in the second half of the year

• But, we underestimated the momentum

  >> Predicting 1 per cent GDP decline for the full year
  >> Growth now expected to be 1.8 per cent or better

• Some revision of earlier Official figures
  
  >> 1997 and 1998 revised downwards/lower base
  >> Impact of consumer price deflation/export growth

THE YEAR 2000 FORECAST
Mickey Mouse - Resurgent Rodent

• Economic Recovery continues in 2000/2001

• 4 per cent real growth in the coming year

• Deflation moderates (zero to 1 per cent inflation)

• Domestic consumption improves somewhat

• External trade in goods and services up

• Private investment flat; Government higher
  

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