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19 October 1999

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Stabilises,
but Actual Numbers Remain High

Comment by the Chamber Chief Economist, Ian K Perkin, on today's unemployment for July-September and June-August 1999.

The stabilisation of the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate at 6.1 per cent in the latest three months to September is welcome, but the underlying statistics continue to show a rise in the number of persons out of work.

This is a disturbing trend and helps support the rationale behind the need to restrain costs, including wages, if the SAR is to enhance its competitiveness, attract new investments and industries, and create new jobs.

The total number of unemployed people for the three months to September stood at 224,000, up from 220,600 in the previous three months to August and 216,000 in the three months to July. Underemployment shows a similar trend.

In terms of raw numbers out of work this means that the total number of unemployed remains at its peak level of the recent downturn, with unemployment (before seasonal adjustment) equal to almost 6.5 per cent of the total available labour force.

A positive trend, however, is the recent contraction in the overall labour force which has should take some of pressure off jobs picture. Were there to be a reversal in this trend in the months ahead, unemployment would increase.

The prospect of an improvement in the economy in the opening months of the new year may encourage employers to take on more staff, especially if local consumption and investment begin to pick up in the final quarter of this year.

However, wage and salaries costs will need to be kept under control if this is to occur and a sustained improvement in employment numbers achieved.


For further information, contact Ian K Perkin on 2823-1242


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