Today��s unemployment number of 7.6 per cent brought some welcome relief from the steady increase over the previous 13 months, confounding the pessimists and indicating the rise in the numbers may have peaked �V at least for now.

One period��s figures does not provide a solid basis for calling an end to the present cycle, but combined with the marginal increase in May-July, it does suggest that the situation may not get much worse, unless there is further economic deterioration.

Some of the employment improvement and decline in the numbers of unemployed may be due to the recent emphasis placed on job creation programmes by Government and the private sector (although the business sector��s one company, one job campaign only kicked off in August).

Certainly, the increase in available job vacancies to 22,950 in August seems also to suggest this is a factor.

But the industries in which unemployment has fallen (and employment has risen) �V construction, wholesale and retail trade, business services and sanitary services �V are also notable for some short term employment practices. This also needs to be taken into account in analysing the numbers.

Looking ahead, the prospects for future employment will depend not only on the ongoing job creation programmes, but also on whether the local economy continues with the modest rebound seen in recent months.

The growth in the numbers in the labour market, the available workforce, will also need to remain moderate.

The return to positive real economic growth in the second quarter of this year after three quarters of decline is one sign of improvement in the local economy and, should it continue, will be good for the employment numbers.

So, too, will the improvement in external trade if it flows through to employment in the trade-related services businesses. If the bigger, global, economic picture also shows some improvement, this is likely to further help local sentiment.

For further information, contact: Ian K Perkin, Chief Economist, 2823-1242