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16 July 2002 UNEMPLOYMENT UP MORE THAN
120,000 IN 18 MONTHS The Chamber’s Chief Economist, Ian K Perkin, comments on the Hong Kong SAR’s unemployment figures for the April-to-June three months issued today. An influx of new graduates and school leavers on to the market last month increased the available labour force by an average of 11,200 in the April-June period and lifted the number of unemployed to 264,000, or 7.7 per cent of the workforce. That compares with the post-Asian Financial Crisis low-point in unemployment of some 144,000 back in the November 2000-January 2001 period – 18 months ago – which was then equivalent to an unemployment rate of 4.3 per cent. The number of people fully employed during the April-June period of this year remained steady at 3,198,000 compared with the preceding three months (March-May), but was down 79,300 on the numbers fully employed 18 months ago. The number now employed is also down 94,000 on the peak level for employment of 3,292,000 back the April-June three months of last year. With the available labour force now expanding as a result of school-leavers and graduates and labour shedding continuing in some sectors of the economy, the unemployment rate is likely to continue to rise in the coming months. In fact, there seems unlikely to be any relief on the unemployment rate until September at the earliest and even that is likely to depend on a marked improvement in the local economy and no further deterioration in financial markets, locally and globally. Until there are sustained signs of economic recovery, employers will find it difficult to lift the numbers employed. The state of the economy and rising unemployment numbers stress the wisdom of private sector wage restraint over recent years. Without wage restraint – and some cases, wage cuts – the unemployment situation might well have been much worse. It also serves to emphasise the necessity for civil service wage cuts at a time when the rest of the community is being affected so badly by the economic slow down and higher unemployment. For further information, contact: Ian K Perkin, Chief Economist, 2823-1242
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