Chamber Boosts 2000 Growth Forecast

Favourable figures for the opening months of the year showing stronger than expected economic recovery are the basis for revising its forecast growth rate for Hong Kong to 5.3 per cent for the year 2000, according to C C Tung, chairman of the Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce (HKGCC).

But he cautioned the rebound is still being measured against last year’s low base and Hong Kong needs to monitor a number of issues which may affect the rate of recovery.

Speaking at HKGCC's annual general meeting, Mr Tung said external trade, total exports and retail sales had shown excellent growth so far this year and helped to boost Hong Kong's economy significantly.

In view of these developments, HKGCC has revised its economic forecast from four per cent to 5.3 per cent. The original forecast was made at the Business Summit in early December last year, at which time it was at the top end of analysts' expectations. The revised forecast is now among the more conservative figures though it is higher than that of the SAR Government.

"We would have been prepared to upgrade more aggressively had it not been for our concerns about further hikes in interest rates, whether deflation will continue and the recent volatility in the global equity market," said Mr Tung.

He added HKGCC will monitor the economic figures for the next few months to see if conditions warrant a further upgrade of the forecast.

In line with the performance of the economy, HKGCC's accounts returned to the black last year after the first ever deficit in the previous year.

Mr Tung also remarked that last year saw the SAR rapidly re-positioning itself to take part in the electronic revolution that is changing the way business is done the world over.

"This will become all the more important as globalisation and regionalisation continue and China gets ever closer to WTO entry, with all the opportunities that will bring in the further opening of the market," he said.

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